Michael Brantley  (OF – CLE) –  Brantley has recently been announced as the frontrunner for the Indians left field starting job.  There is good reason for this, and for you to know his name when your fantasy baseball draft or auction rolls around.  When your competition looks at their fantasy baseball magazines (most of them waiting until the week before the draft to do so), they are going to see a snapshot of his production that does not match up with his skills.  In 2009 Brantley recorded 112 ABs with no power at all, 4 SBs, a .313 batting average, and 19 Ks compared to 8 BBs.  The only number in this line that actually can be expected to continue is the batting average.  That K rate (17.0%) is substantially higher than what he consistently produced in the minors, and the BB/9 rate (6.6%) is significantly lower.  In the minors, Brantley’s worst BB rate was 10.4% and ranged up to 13.0%.  The K rate he produced in the minors was never higher than 13.4% in 2007, and was as low as 6.4% in 2008.  In his entire minor league career, he never recorded an OBP that was lower than .350 in any stop.

It is natural, in fact it is common, for minor leaguers that get the call to the bigs to struggle in their first shot at the best pitchers in the world.  However, Brantley has shown that he understands the strike zone, and even in his short big league stint put up a 91.4% contact rate.  These stats are very encouraging.  While he will not hit for power, his speed is for real as shown by his 46 SBs in AAA during the 2009 season.  His success rate was equally impressive as he was only caught stealing 5 times.  If he hits well this spring and secures that starting job, look for him to put up speed numbers that can help your team well beyond the cost that it will take to land him in your draft.

Jason Heyward  (OF – ATL) –  Here is a name that the casual fantasy baseball GM may miss entirely.  With no major league stats to look at, it takes an informed GM to know that Heyward is one of the best minor league prospects in the game.  Bobby Cox recently stated that Heyward could break camp with the big club, and this would be consistent with his fast rise through the minor league system.  In 2008, Heyward started the season in A-ball with 189 ABs where he hit 11 HRs and 15 SBs, with a .323 BA, a .388 OBP, and a .66 BB/K rate in 449 ABs.  In 2009 he started the season in A+ ball, where his excellent production continued, posting a line of 10 HR and 4 SBs, with a .296 BA, a .360 OBP, and a BB/K rate of .70 in 189 ABs.  After that he was promoted to the AA level, and he did not slow down at all.  In 162 ABs at that level, the power continued with 7 HRs, the speed continued with 5 SBs, the average continued at .352, and his improvement to his BB/K rate took a jump up to 1.47 in 162 ABs.

All of these signs show a player that understands the strike zone, has the power to contribute at the major league level, and can steal a base or two in the process.  As a low-profile player with no major league stats to look at, he could be cheap enough to be the fantasy baseball sleeper that every team is looking for.  Keep track of this situation in the spring, as Heyward only has to beat out Matt Diaz to win a significant amount of playing time in 2010.  Since Diaz tends to struggle versus right-handed pitching, Heyward forcing his way into the picture is a good gamble.  On a side note, this kid is huge at 6′4″ and could develop significantly more power going forward.

Everth Cabrera  (SS – SD) –  This sleeper is a little higher-profile than the first two since he recorded 377 ABs with the Padres in 2009.  However, the stat line that he produced in that time was below what Cabrera is capable of, and some of the numbers he posted could even scare away some GMs.  Needless to say, any sleeper at shortstop is worthy of your attention and consideration.  Cabrera does have a few flaws in his game.  His K rate is too high, and his BB rate is too low.  Yet the potential is there for Cabrera to completely blow away the numbers he posted in 2009.

Firstly, the starting job is his.  There is no question that barring injury Cabrera will be a full-time starter in 2010.  Secondly, the numbers that he posted in his short minor league career point to abilities that he did not show in 2009.  While other GMs are focused on his .255 BA in 2009, you should focus on the fact that he had only 50 ABs above A-Ball before being called up to the big leagues.  In his last “full” season in the minors (Rockies-A), Cabrera’s BB/9 rate was actually lower than it was in the big leagues, and while his K rate was higher, it was in the same ballpark as his stint in the bigs.  It is also worthy of note that while that .255 BA from 2009 was not desirable, his OBP was .342 which is very respectable (also, his BABIP during his big league ABs was the lower than any stint in his minor league career).

While other GMs focus on the fact that Cabrera only stole 25 bases while being caught 8 times in 2009, you should focus on the fact that Cabrera stole 73 bases in the minors during the 2008 season and was caught only 16 times.  He has speed to burn.  Oh, and did I mention that this kid is only 23 years old?  Sure, his supporting cast and ballpark are working against his power, RBI, and runs scored.  Yet when talking about a speedster, you are looking for help in the SB and BA category, both of which Cabrera could offer your team for a fraction of the price that a Ryan Theriot or Asdrubal Cabrera will cost.  Finding a sleeper in the outfield is great, as Brantley and Heyward could be.  However, finding a sleeper at a thinner position such as shortstop is what can win you a league.  Follow Everth’s progress this spring, and hope that he doesn’t steal so many bases that his low-profile status is blown.

Shortstop

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Top Tier : Hanley Ramirez

There are those in the second tier at shortstop that may put up studly seasons here and there, but there is only one Hanley Ramirez.  With power, speed, and average, he remains alone at the top of the heap.  I would really love to see what he could do with a better lineup around him and a better hitter’s park to call home.  Regardless, he is guaranteed fantasy baseball gold, and should be considered as one of the top 2 or 3 commodities overall.

Second Tier : Jimmy Rollins, Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter, Jose Reyes, Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist

Jimmy Rollins was a fantasy team killer in the first half of 2009.  With a crazy rebound in the second half, his end of the year stat line was still worth a hefty bid.  He still has power and will still steal bases.  The Phillie lineup is as good as ever, and Rollins has shown the pedigree in his past to believe that his batting average could rebound in a huge way in 2010.  If you can get him at a discount, jump.  Troy Tulowitzki also had a slow start to 2009.  In fact, in one of my keeper leagues his owner offered him up in every deal he proposed for over a month.  He couldn’t move Tulo, and now he is really happy about it.  While I do not believe that he will match his 2009, he is still worth your bid money.  Just don’t go overboard.

Derek Jeter has been doing it for years, but 2009 was his first truly excellent fantasy season since 2006.  As a Yankee fan I love him.  As a fantasy GM that loves to win, I pass.  His name and the fact that his numbers took an uptick in 2009 are going to drive his price through the roof.  For a complete breakdown and analysis as to why I feel Jeter is going to be priced too high, see my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.

Jose Reyes may be the superstar who saw his value decrease the most due to his poor and injury-riddled 2009 season.  He was a top 4 pick in 2009 snake drafts, and commanded huge bid money in fantasy baseball auctions.  Hamstring problems (let alone ones that require surgery like Reyes’ did) are a huge problem for players who’s primary fantasy asset is speed.  It is the classic high risk/reward decision.  If Reyes is healthy, he will likely pick up where he left off.  Which is as one of the best fantasy players in the game.  If these injuries resurface, he could lose valuable ABs to the disabled list.  Someone in your league will be willing to pay for him as if 2009 never happened.  Don’t be that guy.  Adjust his price to reflect the risk you are taking, and don’t chase him past that point.

Ah, now we come to the two names that people will have a problem with being placed so high in this report.  Jason Bartlett had one of the largest upticks in value due to his monster 2009.  He turned the corner from no-power, semi-speedster who had a decent batting average into a moderate power, high-batting average, good-speed, potential leadoff hitter.  For a complete analysis, see Mike D’s Jason Bartlett Player Profile.

Ben Zobrist completely rebuilt his swing.  You have seen the results.  The power he has shown is way above average for a shortstop (he had 13 games at short in 2009), and his production was fairly consistent month-to-month last year.  If your league allows you to draft him at short, you may be able to catch your competition napping, and grab him after the known elite options are gone.  For more Zobrist analysis, see the complete breakdown in his Player Profile.

Third Tier : Alexei Ramirez, Ryan Theriot, Miguel Tejada, Elvis Andrus, Jhonny Peralta, Stephen Drew, Asdrubal Cabrera, Alcides Escobar

This is a very interesting tier with some players that could breakout or rebound.  Alexei Ramirez was supposed to be the breakout shortstop in 2009.  After putting up a nice power/speed combination in 480 ABs in 2008, fantasy baseball GMs broke out their wallets to pay for the upside he offered.  They had to be very disappointed when Ramirez went on to decline in most scoring categories, though having 62 more ABs than he had in 2008.  However, there is reason to still like the youngster.  He watched his batting average go down from .290 to .277, yet his OBP went up from .317 to .333 and his BB/K rate improved drastically.  Now that the hype has settled a bit and his price has lowered, this could be the season where your moderate investment pays huge dividends.

There are four shortstops in this tier who’s main asset is their speed.  Ryan Theriot has seen his batting average jump around from .266 to .307, but his stolen base production has remained consistent.  He is not an option that is going to blow you away in any single category (not even SBs), but should give you some help in each.  If you are looking for speed, Elvis Andrus or Alcides Escobar may be better choices.  This pair of young shortstops are similar in that their organization did not want to wait to put them in the lineup.  Andrus forced Michael Young over to third base in 2009, and we were able to see why almost immediately.  While his batting average was nothing awesome, his OBP as acceptable, and his stolen base total is sure to keep his price in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions high.  Similarly, Alcides Escobar forced the Brewers to completely hose J.J. Hardy.  Hardy started slow in 2009, and despite his past success, they sent him to the minors for contract reasons (and to see what Escobar had to offer).  As it turns out, Escobar showed them enough to let J.J. Hardy leave town.  At the minor league level, Escobar proved himself to be a high-average hitter and good stolen base threat, yet his BB/K rate dropped dramatically upon reaching the show.  Like the other two speed guys we discussed, he does not have much in the way of power, but he could easily wind up in the leadoff spot for much of 2010.

Finally, we come to Asdrubal Cabrera.  He is a strange case, and I have to admit that I am not sure what to think about him.  With the batting average and stolen base total he put up in 2009 (.308 BA, 17 SB), he is not going to slip under your opponent’s radar.  In the minors, he was not a huge stolen base threat.  His minor league high was 23 in 2007, but in no other year in his 6 year minor league career did he steal more than 12.  Another crazy number that pops out of his minor league stats is his BB/K rate.  At some stops it is close to or over 1.0.  At other stops he struck out 3-4 times more than he walked.  I want to be able to predict what the players I draft  will do, and all of these wild cards in Cabrera’s history, plus the higher price tag he will command in 2010 make me want to let someone else pay for his services in 2010.

Miguel Tejada is older than when you could expect great numbers, but not so old that he can’t help your fantasy team.  His average should remain high, and his power is not yet completely gone.  Just be sure to bid on him as though he is in the third tier, not any higher.  Many GMs were expecting Stephen Drew to take a big step forward in 2009.  Needless to say, the step he took was backward.  The good news is that his batting average did not drop all the way back to his 2007 total of .238, and that his BB/K rate actually improved over his great 2008 season.  I would expect that his power will grow a bit more, but it looks as though he will not be a consistent BA asset.  There is upside here, but we have been waiting on this upside to show up for a few years now.  He could be a nice buy-low candidate.

Fourth Tier :  Orlando Cabrera, Yunel Escobar, Marco Scutaro, Everth Cabrera, Erik Aybar, Rafael Furcal, J.J. Hardy, Edgar Renteria, Clint Barmes, Mike Aviles

There is a ton of mediocre, but steady production in this tier.  Orlando Cabrera has hit either 8 or 9 HRs in the last five seasons.  Yet his stolen base total has dropped every season since 2006.  Perhaps this is why he is still a free agent at the time of this posting.  His batting average is still worth while, but his lack of upside should keep your bid reasonable.  Yunel Escobar is another steady but uninspiring option.  He is another player (like O. Cabrera) that will help you in batting average, but put up mediocre production in all the other categories.    Marco Scutaro was a perennial waiver-wire pickup before 2009.  After putting up a decent season (12 HR, 14 SB, 100 R, .282 BA) and his team change to the Red Sox, his price is sure to rise.  He could wind up putting up a similar stat-line in 2010, but I would rather take a safer bet for the price he will go for.  Poor Rafael Furcal.  He was a fantasy gem for the first couple seasons he spent in the bigs.  Now he is an extreme injury risk, and even when healthy has not put up the same numbers GMs associate with his name.  He has the potential to return to his former self, but his injury risk should temper your bid.  Take a look at Everth Cabrera.  He may be available late, he played well in his first major league ABs (.342 OBP, 25 SB).  He was fast enough to steal 73 bases 2008, and he should be on your radar.  Be aware though, last year were his first ABs over A-ball.

There is some upside in this tier that you should note.  J.J. Hardy (as we covered above) was shipped out of town to make way for a younger player.  I see this as an opportunity to buy him low.  His BB/K rate was almost the same as his previous seasons, and his contact rate was only slightly lower than normal.  The one stat that stands out to me is that his BABIP in 2009 was the lowest it had been since his rookie season (2009 BABIP – .264).  It is no secret that he was upset with his former team for the way they played with his career, and the change of scenery should help him.  Another name that you may be able to slip by your fellow league members is Mike Aviles.  After putting up stellar numbers in 2008, Aviles was injured early in 2009 and wound up missed almost the entire season.  While I do not believe that he will return all the way to that .325 BA he recorded in 2008, he should be able to find enough playing time and give you enough production to make him worth grabbing cheap or late.  Wow, Clint Barmes made a huge recovery in 2008 and 2009 from his tragic deer meat accident that derailed his career years ago.  Finally making good on his potential, his 23 HRs were by far a career high.  His batting average leaves something to be desired, and he may have to still compete for playing time should he slump.  If you draft him, you should also count on those SBs declining since he was caught stealing in 10 out of his 22 attempts in 2009.  Be careful here, and do not bid as though 20 HRs is assured.

The Rest : Bobby Crosby, Maicer Izturis, Luis Valbuena, Emilio Bonifacio, Cliff Pennington, Christian Guzman, Willie Bloomquist, Khalil Greene, Tommy Manzella, Ian Desmond, Alex Gonzalez, Juan Uribe, Yuniesky Betancourt, Brendan Harris, Cesar Izturis, Julio Lugo, Paul Janish

There are lots of names down here that are unpredictable.  Many of these names have some potential, but do not have assured playing time.  When you get this low on the depth chart at shortstop, concentrate on those players that will get the ABs.  You do not want to draft someone and depend on an injury to the starter for your player’s production to match your bid.  Ian Desmond should start the season with a full time job.  He has some pop in his bat, but is completely unproven.  Luis Valbuena still has to win a job, but showed that he can hit a bit, but his playing time is not certain. Tommy Manzella could wind up the starter in Houston.  He hit .299 in the last two seasons in the minors and can steal a base (but probably not a ton of them).  Playing time could be an issue for Macier Izturis, but he can hit, and should find enough ABs to help your team.  Do not expect a rebound from Khalil Greene.  He was never that great to begin with, and his mental issues could resurface at any time.  The Cardinals wanted to go with Julio Lugo instead.  That should tell you all you need to know.

There is nothing wrong with this fact.  The key is recognizing it and adjusting the price you are willing to pay to match what you think the player’s production for 2010 will be, and not pay for whatever 2009 stats they accrued.  Just because you think a player has over-performed doesn’t mean you should avoid that player all together.  It just means that you cannot get carried away in the bidding for his services.  So let’s look at some players who’s fantasy value rose drastically in 2009, yet may not perform well enough to justify their higher 2010 price.

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Catcher

Kurt Suzuki (OAK) –  The production Suzuki put up in 2009 was both huge and unexpected.  He more than doubled his home run and RBI totals from 2008, and did so in only 40 more ABs.  Since he placed 4th among catchers in RBI and 11th in home runs, it is not likely that this player will slip under your opponent’s radar.  His price is going to be high for 2010.  Let’s face it, everyone is looking for an advantage at catcher.  The position is so weak that even a sniff of a breakout player is worthy of an extra couple of bid dollars, or using a pick on him a round earlier than you normally would.

Suzuki is a prime candidate for someone to overpay.  There are few indications that the power will remain, and there are statistics that indicate that it won’t.  Suzuki hit 5 HRs in 307 ABs in the first half of the season, and 10 HRs in 263 ABs in the second.  His batting average also dropped 42 points from the first half to the second (his OBP dropped to .286).   If you look back to 2007, he actually hit 7 HRs in only 213 ABs, which is closer to the AB/HR rate that he had in 2009.  This is the only number I can find to support paying for the 2009 stats as if they will continue.  My bet is they won’t.  2010 fantasy baseball projections: .268 BA, 9 HR, 70RBI, 62 R, 4 SB, 450 AB

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First Base

Derrek Lee (CHC) –  It seems as though every few seasons Derrek Lee puts up numbers that pump his value up significantly.  In 2003, Lee had 31 HR and 21 SBs.  Fantasy GMs paid large bid money because the speed at first base was such an asset.  Lee responded by stealing only 12 bases in 2004, though he did hit 32 HRs.  In 2005 came the mother of all over-productive seasons, as Lee hit 46 HR (14 more than his career high), 107 RBI (career high), a .335 BA (54 points over his career high), 120 runs (25 over career high), and 15 SBs.  The amount fantasy GMs overpaid for Lee in 2006 was massive.  Needless to say, Lee got injured in that season, and did not have a chance to repeat those numbers.  However, the numbers he did put up in the 175 ABs he logged was nowhere near that level of production.

In the following two seasons, Lee’s power reverted back to his baseline level of production:  home run totals in the 20s and 80-90 RBIs.  His batting average did remain higher than his career average, but his speed was cut in half.  So in 2009 Lee had another “gonna-have-to-pay-big-bucks-to-get-him” year.  With 35 home runs, a career high in RBI, and a BA 25 points above his career average, there is no question that Lee will command a higher price than he has in years (it should also be noted that he only stole 1 base in 2009).  Don’t pay it.  The chances that he matches the second best season of his career at 34 years old is low.  Even if he does manage to approach those numbers, there are other players out there just as capable as Lee that will be cheaper due to their lower profile.  Take one of them, and use the extra cash for something else.  2010 fantasy baseball projection:  .301 BA, 27 HR, 97 RBI, 90 R, 5 SB, 543 AB

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Second Base

Aaron Hill (TOR) –  It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that Hill will see the biggest price increase among second basemen from 2009 to 2010.  Hitting 36 home runs, he led the position in the category.  There is definitely a chance that Hill will keep most of the power he showed in the 2009 season.  After hitting only 2 home runs in 205 ABs in 2008 (when he got injured), the 36 home run total he recorded in 2009 was (needless to say) impressive.  Yet, his power surge didn’t come out of nowhere.  In 2007 Hill did manage to hit 17 home runs on the season.  So it is fair to say that Hill does have some power, but 36 home runs worth?  I will not pay for that.

Take a look at Hill’s career AB/HR numbers: 2005- 120.3,  2006- 91,  2007- 35.8,  2008- 102.5,  2009- 18.9.  They are all over the place.  It is much easier to predict what a player will do when the numbers climb or fall steadily.  It is much harder when those numbers jump around in no particular pattern, and injury affects playing time.  I do find it very hard to believe that he will be able to match this huge jump in AB/HR.  Also worthy of noting is that Hill lead all of MLB with 682 ABs in 2009.  This number of ABs is extremely unusual.  Over the last three seasons, only 4 players have had over 680 ABs (Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Aaron Hill, Ichiro Suzuki).  Notice that Hill is the only non-leadoff hitter to reach that number.  So that is another crucial statistic that needs to stay high if he is to maintain his current value.  The one set of numbers that I found that can be used to support paying the price Hill will cost in 2010 is that his month-to-month power production was consistent throughout the season.  How much do you think a 36 home run hitting second baseman is going to cost?  How good do you feel about paying that price for a player that only hit a total of 28 home runs in the 1720 ABs in his career prior to his huge 2009?  I don’t feel good about it at all.  2010 fantasy baseball projection:  .282 BA, 26 HR, 90 RBI, 89 R, 6 SB, 585 AB

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Third Base

Mark Reynolds (ARI) –  Duh.  This one is pretty obvious.  It is pretty hard to ignore a season where a player hits over 40 home runs and steals over 20 bases.  I am not doubting his power.  That is something that was supposed to be a part of Reynolds’ game.  Add in the fact that Reynolds turns 27 this season (the cliche “power-spike” age), and there could be a feeding frenzy for his services at your auction or draft this season.

There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about whether or not Reynolds will be able to maintain his value.  Of course, we have to start with his second straight year setting the record for number of strikeouts.  His BB/K rate has gotten worse in each of his big league seasons.  His isolated power jumped 65 points over what it had been from the previous two seasons.  He swings at too many pitches outside of the strike zone, his contact rate shows that he misses 37% of the time when he swings the bat, and he swings at almost 50% of the pitches thrown to him.  So sure, he had a monster power season, but the numbers show that a season with far fewer home runs, and an even lower batting average is not hard to imagine.  Top off the fact that his stolen base percentage was 9th lowest among players that stole at least 20 bases, and his value can drop even further if they give him the red light on the base-paths.

There is plenty of truth to the argument that Reynolds could well be worth the price you will have to pay to get him.  Those fantasy GMs that like Adam Dunn are sure to use the same reasoning for Reynolds.  That is:  40 home runs is 40 home runs.  Who cares about the batting average?  Top it off with the thinner third base position that Reynolds qualifies at, and the price goes up higher and higher.  Personally, I would like to see at least another season where Reynolds’ shortcomings are overcome, and great fantasy numbers are put up again.  Dunn is so valuable because he hits 40 HRs every season.  Reynolds has done so only once.  Until he is as safe a bet as Dunn, I will reign in my expectations, and keep my bid money for someone else.  2010 fantasy baseball projection: .244 BA, 34 HR, 99 RBI, 95, 15 SB, 550 AB

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Shortstop

Derek Jeter (NYY) –  Hey, I am a Yankee fan, and even I am willing to admit that Jeter has passed his prime.  You may not realize it since he still looks so young and dates the hottest women on the planet, but he has played in the league for 15 years.  He will be 36 years old this season.  How many times have you been offered a player in a trade that is 36 years old and you said, “Wow, they are old, and I can’t trust that they will keep putting up those great stats.”?  With his resurgent season, there are going to be plenty of GMs that are willing to drink the Jeter cool-aid and pay as if he were 28 again.  The key word there is “resurgent”.  That means that his numbers returned to what they used to be when he was in his prime.

I have no doubt that Jeter will hit for a good batting average.  I have no doubt that he will score a ton of runs.  I have considerable doubt that he will steal 30 bases again (a number he has reached only 4 times in 15 seasons, more than double his 2008 total).  I also have large doubt as to whether or not he can hit 18 home runs again.  His RBI total has dropped three straight years, despite his extra power in 2009 and improvements to the Yankee lineup.  There is no question that the new Yankee Stadium is better for power numbers, and this is supported by Jeter’s home and road splits (13 HR – home, 5 HR – road).  So there is the argument to be made that the power could stay.  However, if the people in your league are ready to pay for Jeter as if it were the days of the big three (A-Rod, Nomar Garciaparra, Jeter), then you should just let him go.  2010 fantasy baseball projection:  .308 BA, 14 HR, 50 RBI, 103 R, 22 SB, 613 AB

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Outfield

Gimme the stolen bases, man! NOW!

Michael Bourn (HOU) -  Stolen bases are the crack form of fantasy addiction.  We need ‘em……..we need ‘em baaaaad.  Maybe your addiction is for WHIP or RBIs.  But if you are hooked on SBs, you need help.  Michael Bourn is going to have fantasy GMs going after him like Jeff Portnoy goes after heroin.  What you have to remember is, not all drugs are bad.  The good kind that you get from the pharmacy (like Ichiro) are fantasy baseball medicine, and can help you win fantasy championships.  Michael Bourn is the bad kind of drugs.  The type that will have you sleeping in a refrigerator box on W 53rd street.  Even scarier, the kind that can hurt your fantasy team greatly if you pay for him at this year’s cost.

In 2008, Bourn stole 41 bases but hit a meager .229.  His OBP was .288, he struck out 111 times to only 37 walks, and he hit .190 against left-handed pitching.  Despite all that, the Astros still went into the 2009 season with Bourn as a starter.  In 2009, Bourn was a completely different player.  His batting average in 2009 was about equal to his 2008 OBP, he hit lefties and righties equally, and he upped his stolen base total to 61. Yes, 2009 was a good season.  In fact, it was an incredible season for Michael Bourn.  However, will 2010 be as good?  The numbers say that it probably will not.  Sure, he will steal bases.  But that is a function of how often he gets on base.  That .285 batting average from 2009 is not something that I feel he will repeat in 2010.  While the scoring stats do not paint a complete picture, the secondary numbers show it all.  BABIP is a good stat to watch.  While it does not tell the whole story, it can give insight into breakout or slump type seasons where the player in question either under or over produces in relation to their baseline of production.

The average for all players in Major League Baseball for 2009 was for a player’s BABIP to be 40 points over their batting average (min 100 ABs).  Obviously, this number has to be taken into account with the totality of a player’s statistics.  Yet, the difference for Bourn is blaring.  Bourn’s BABIP (.367) was 82 points over his batting average (.285).  He had the 15th highest BABIP in the league (the average BABIP for the league with the same min 100 ABs was .301).  In fact, if you really want to compare full-time starters, Bourn had the 3rd highest BABIP for all MLB players with over 500 AB in 2009.  While his BB/K rate was slightly higher, it cannot explain this difference.  So unless you believe that Bourn’s baseline should be twice the league average for BABIP, you can reasonably conclude that luck played a role in his “breakout” season.

You also need to consider that Bourn is a three scoring category contributor at best.  He will never hit for close to the power or RBIs offered by the average outfielder.  So if you pay as much money for Bourn as it would cost to get Ichiro, and that batting average regresses, is he worth it?  Consider that his runs and stolen bases will also suffer if he doesn’t get on base.  What if his batting average against left-handers sinks closer to his 2008 average of .190?  Does he lose playing time in the second half?  Juan Pierre was worthy of fairly large bid money for years.  If he had hit only .240 would he had been worth the same amount?  Unless you know the answers to these questions, it would be silly to pay the top bid dollars that Bourn will command in an auction.  If you have him cheap in a keeper league, sure, you should be psyched to keep him.  But if you are paying to acquire him, you are probably paying too much to take all of those gambles.  2010 fantasy baseball projection:  .253 BA, 89 R, 2 HR, 32 RBI, 46 SB, 585 AB

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"Zorilla" can be useful.

Every season there are players that step forward to have huge years, seemingly out of nowhere.  When we form our game-plan in the pre-season, we have to decide whether or not we believe that they can produce similar results again.  Just ask those people who paid a ton in 2009 for Ryan Ludwick or Carlos Quentin how it feels to be wrong about their guys.  Last season was no different in this regard.  Plenty of players that were unowned at the end of most fantasy auctions or drafts turned out to be valuable fantasy commodities for those that who were quick and smart enough to grab them.  Enter, Ben Zobrist.  He had a great season.  With 27 HR, 17 SB, and 91 RBI while hitting a robust .297, he is sure to get a lot of attention in fantasy debates this spring.  When you factor in that he qualifies in the outfield, second base, and shortstop in some leagues (13 games), those are some numbers that believers will pay a lot for, or reach for in drafts.  So now there are two questions to answer: 1) How much do you believe Zobrist will repeat those numbers?  and 2) What are you willing to pay for him if you believe he will?

Minors

Zobrist spent parts of five seasons in the minor leagues.  He was by no means a big power hitter during those years, but at 6′-3″, it is not surprising that he has developed power.  Zobrist was also not a huge speed threat.  While his success rate in the minors was not terrible, he does not have blazing speed (58 SB, 20 CS).  Zobrist was, however,  a good OBP player.  In every season, at every level (barring a 14 AB stint in 2008) Zobrist had an OBP of .400 or greater, and a batting average of over .300 in all but one season.  Walking more that striking out, his plate discipline cannot be ignored.

2009

On and off of the big club for the last several seasons, Zobrist struggled early.  Batting average was an issue, though in 2008 he took a step forward.  Especially at the end of 2008, Zobrist show flashes of what he was able to do.  His batting average came up, his OBP rose, and his power showed up for the first time at the major league level (12 HR in 198 ABs).  Zobrist credits this marked improvement to help from swing mechanic, Jaime Cevallos, and hitting coach Dan Heefner.  They broke his swing down, and rebuilt it.  They convinced him that he did not have to sacrifice power for average, and the results are hard to argue with.

When the opportunity to play regularly early in 2009 thanks to an injury to Akinori Iwamura, Zobrist made the most of it.  After an April in which Zobrist hit 4 HR and kept his batting average over .280, he received almost twice as many ABs in May.  Zobrist responded by hitting .313 with an OBP of .439 for the month.  Once he started, Zobrist really did not stop.  From that point on, he did not have a month with an OBP under .382, and had two more months over .400.  Even when his average stumbled one month (August – .242), he maintained a .383 OBP.  This corresponds very well with what he showed he was capable of when in the minor leagues.  His splits against lefties and righties don’t raise any red flags, though he does appear to hit lefties better (.319 BA-LHP, .287 BA-RHP).  While his second half was not awful, his slugging percentage, speed, and RBI totals declined in the second half.  With 2009 being his first season to even approach 500 ABs, it is not hard to believe that he tired down the stretch (only 3 HR in Sept and Oct combined).

Warning Signs

Of course, there are a few issues that raise red flags about Ben Zobrist.  Firstly, he is old to just now be breaking into the major leagues as an everyday player.  He will be 29 in May of 2010.  Players that break in that late tend to peak and decline quicker than those who break-out during their early 20’s.  I am also wary of players who have had sudden improvements so high above their baseline production.  The fact that there were swing coaches involved makes me feel a little better about it, but it makes me wonder what happens if/when he finds himself in his first real slump.  Will he revert to his older tendencies?  The speed he displayed was just gravy for his fantasy owners.  Yet with a borderline success rate, those SBs could disappear very quickly.  He only stole 6 bases on 9 attempts in the second half last season.  Finally, there is one weird stat out there that I noticed.  His batting average was 60 points lower when he played second base (.261) as opposed to outfield (.321).  It is an odd stat, but one that is worth noting since he is slated to start at second base for the 2010 season.

Fantasy Implications

Ben Zobrist is going to go for a good amount of bid money or an early pick in the 2010 season (relative to his 2009 draft day ranking).  He is a very attractive target for 2B, and if your league only requires 10 games for qualification, then he is even more attractive at shortstop.  In 2009, he truly put forth a 5 category effort.  I can find very few flaws with his splits, and his power has been fairly consistent for over a season now.  Would I consider him a keeper that I want on my team for years and years?  Probably not.  However, if I can grab him at shortstop this year and it doesn’t break my bank, I’m in.  Even if he regresses a bit, he will still be among the highest producing players at a very thin position.  Of course, if this is just the beginning and he is actually still improving, then you will have a real gem on your hands.  The most likely reality is that he gives some of that advance in production back.  That doesn’t mean is isn’t a valuable guy.  It just means that he does not rank at the top of the fantasy shortstop rankings with Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes and Derek Jeter.  Though he could easily find a home just below that group if he can just maintin 90% of the numbers he put up in 2009.  If your league shows any hesitation about this guy, my advice is to take the gamble and jump.  My projections for him: 25 HR, 90 RBI, 85 R, 9 SB, .282 BA.

Doubt the power... not the talent

Season-ending, head-scratching is part of the fun of fantasy baseball. So many 2009 owners spent an arm and leg to make sure they had a top-notch shortstop. When all was said and done, how many asked themselves, “Why didn’t I get Jason Bartlett and spend my Hanley Ramirez-money elsewhere?” In case you didn’t notice, this Tampa SS put up a monster year, hitting .320 with a .389 OBP to go with 14 home runs, 30 stolen bases, 90 runs and 66 rbis — all career highs. So the question becomes, will Bartlett play well enough in 2010 to warrant the added attention he will surely garner on draft day?

Minors

It may seem odd to take a look a 30 year-old player’s minor league history, but there is one thing to note about Bartlett. He is a product of the Twins organization. The Twins minor league system has this amazing ability to turn out players who do what they’re supposed to do.  Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Scott Baker of recent note, Bartlett was also a member of that fraternity, and was always touted as a contact, line-drive hitter with better-than-average speed and a good glove. This is basically the skill set that has made him an everyday major leaguer.

2009

Those who have followed Bartlett’s slow (sometimes painfully slow), rise as a serious fantasy option at SS were properly enticed by what had always been a cheap source of stolen bases. When an owner didn’t get Option 1 or 2 at shortstop, Bartlett was a decent choice because of his ability to swipe a bag, even at the detriment of power and RBIs. The 2009 season has thrown that all out the window; Bartlett had a career year.

As 2009 unfolded, many believed Bartlett’s numbers would fade, especially his batting average and power. After a minor hamstring injury slowed him for a bit, the excuse was there for the slide to begin. He hit .247 in the month of July. August days are supposed to be the “dog days” where worn out players finally fall off, but after that slow July, Bartlett got it cranking again, hitting .356 in August. He slowed a little again to the finish line, but was out there everyday, right up to the end. He finished with a stolen base in 5 of his final 6 games of the season. There is no doubt. 2009 was a spectacular, wire-to-wire effort for Bartlett, but what should we be concerned about?

Warning Signs

There are quite a few things that flash “Stay Away!!!” when a player has a breakout season. For starers, there’s history. Past baseball drafts are strewn with the carcasses of teams built around players who were coming of off huge seasons. How many 2004 drafts had wild bidding on Esteban Loaiza after his 21 win/207 strikeout 2003? There was plenty of evidence that Loaiza wasn’t going to repeat that effort and only a little evidence that he might.

That, of course, is an extreme example, but it is more likely that Bartlett fits into the Adrain Beltre mode; a guy who was all upside until his 48 home run outburst in 2004, then became a disappointment as owners spent 48 home run dollars to get 19 home run production. With both Beltre and Bartlett, there is a history of stats leading up to the explosion. Owners need to realize that the price for Bartlett will probably be too high, but the question is, what will his stats for 2010 be?

Before we get to those projections, let’s go over the remaining Bartlett-specific issues in the numbers. As mentioned earlier, these were career numbers across the board and in some instances, complete outliers. Home runs jumps out as the category that seems least likely to repeat. Bartlett had a career total of 11 home runs entering the 2009 season, and this 29-year old, was able to more-than-double that total. It’s possible that he’s found a power stroke, but to pay, expecting 14 home runs every 500 at-bats(as it was in 2009) is silly. If you pay and get them, consider yourself lucky. The good news is that you aren’t(or shouldn’t be) drafting Bartlett for his power. If you got 9 instead of 14, your team shouldn’t be all that affected.

Further, the other numbers do seem a bit tough to repeat, but at least there’s some precedent. If you’re concerned about the batting average, don’t be. Just expect a .290 average when you’re putting your squad together and be happy with everything you get over that. A .290 batting average is more than attainable and actually leaves you plenty of upside. See, if you build expecting a .290 average and get a .305 batting average, you will be in good shape, as it will fill in for the failings of other players, where if you expect the repeat at .320, then get that .305, your team will actually be in the hole. Instead of that .305 helping, it hurts, so the lesson here is plan wisely. Don’t expect too much from certain players and it will force you to be realistic about the stats you need from the rest of your team.

Good News and Projections:

An interesting bit of news has been floating out there that potential Bartlett owners should keep an eye on. The Rays, flush with the excitement after their great 2008 run, went out and spent some money, primarily on Pat Burrell. Well, 2009 wasn’t so good, especially at the gate, and that put the Rays in a difficult situation. They may be forced to move a major salary, and the word is that Carl Crawford might be shipped out for prospects. If this happens, Jason Bartlett would become the primary option to bat leadoff, with some time in the two-hole.  It also means almost no time at the bottom of the order, which is where he often found himself in 2009. Remember, the blow out stats for Bartlett came in just 500 at-bats this season. Even if you believe that the home runs will decline, the raw number, with extra at-bats, may not look all that different. As it was, Bartlett was only hitting one home run every 36 at-bats. Let’s say that moves to one every 50 at-bats, but Bartlett ends up with 600 at-bats on the season; that’s still 12 home runs. As discussed earlier, you aren’t really getting Bartlett for the home runs, but that same math applies to all the other categories you care about. In 2009, Bartlett scored 90 times, while batting 7th, 8th or 9th in the order for a combined 65 games. If Bartlett is hitting 1st or 2nd for the entire season(or even most of the season), he will set another career high in runs scored in 2010, as he will be sure to be in triple-digits for the first time. The Crawford situation is one a swift fantasy owner will watch closely. If Crawford is dealt, the price for this SS might suddenly be a lot easier to swallow. If all that happens, get Bartlett for sure, but for now, I would work off the following stat projections:

2010 Prediction: 530 abs/.290 ba/9 HR/90 runs/65 rbi/27 sb